Home Builders Association of Portland, December 2, 2014 By emilyz
PSU Center for Real Estate blasts Metro's Growth Report
Gerry Mildner, head of the Center for Real Estate at Portland State University, reviewed Metro’s recently-released Urban Growth Report (UGR). His review and research is now final, and can be viewed here.
Dr. Mildner has analyzed Metro’s UGR and discusses the serious problems with it. The compelling and significant conclusions, include:
- Metroscope is not a forecasting model, but a population and job assignment model that doesn’t take into account the cost for developing at higher densities
- Metro has produced an unsubstantiated housing production forecastthe amount of housing price increases required by Metroscope to fit growth within the current UGB is staggering and would cause Portland to rise to the 4th least affordable metro market in the Country over the next 20 years the large projected housing costs disproportionately affect low income households
- Metro’s growth proposal creates a huge unfunded government mandate in transportation subsidies and subsidies to develop high-density housing
- Metro’s plans are based on perceived harm to the climate/environment which are unsubstantiated and actually would be made worse if Metro’s plans ultimately push economic dev’t out of our region
- Metro’s plans would significantly increase commute times
- Metro’s plans assume a huge downshift in auto usage and increase in public transportation, even though no such shift has occurred over the last 20 years (despite significant investments)
Dr. Mildner has sent this report to the Metro Council. It is also being published in the well-read PSU Center for Real Estate Quarterly available online at www.pdx.edu/realestate/center-for-real-estate-quarterly. An article reviewing the findings in The Oregonian is anticipated.