- Lake Oswego is hardly a hot spot for younger people to move to, professionals or not. Ask a Millennial or Gen-X person what they think about living in the 'burbs, and unless they are married and either have children or will have children, moving out of the city is not a good way to meet other singles and engage in a active social life. Especially if moving to the suburbs means paying a premium price for luxury digs - now the pool of renters narrows real fast.
- Just wondering - how many oder, empty-nesters are looking for apartments if they can afford condominiums? Looking at the design of the building with the commercial below, the park on one side and a tight courtyard in the center, this will be rather dense living arrangements. Is this the luxury lifestyle well-to-do oldsters are looking for?
- Vacancy rates in Lake Oswego have regularly been higher than most markets in the a metro area. (MMHA). The high vacancy rates are surprising given Lake Oswego posts among the highest rents of suburban markets..
- A 367-unit apartment complex is coming on line this year near Bridgeport in Tualatin. The Portland region is expecting an additional 15,000 units in the near future with those that are under construction, permitted or in the design phase. In a year or two, the market absorption may be high enough to begin to lower occupancy rates and then rents.
- Mixed-use has to be right for the commercial and the tenant mix and the market cycles between them. Too many retail mixed-use in the Pearl District has been a disaster for some building owners with vacant storefronts. But the planners wanted the retail, so that's what was put in for vibrancy. Will this make the project more or less successful?
I am puzzled as to what the marketing strategy for this project is. I am more interested since public money is going to support some portion of it. If this elephant flies, how high will she go, and how far will she get?
Here are some thoughts to address your curios points:
ReplyDelete1. Recent research indicates that once young people reach about age 30 they do begin to look for a non city (i.e., downtown) place to live with more space, parks and single family housing they might eventually move to. This seems to be consistent with settling down and starting a family.
2. If one looks at condos around Portland, many of them are "tight and dense". Not all older people are looking for condos. The economics of renting are not much different than condos IF the value of money tied up in a condo is invested.
3. Vacancy rates may be high in L.O. because of both the type of units available (such as dated interiors, the rents and the general cost of living. It may not be a good indicator of market potential.
4. The Bridgeport complex is no where as attractive as downtown L.O. The site is not in a "village" and requires a car to do most things where downtown L.O. does not. Few of the proposed developments are in an area as attractive as L.O.
5. There is a lot of retail competition in the Pearl but not in downtown L.O. With all the development in the Pearl there is probably an oversupply of small retail space. There is only 27,000 feet of retail space and some of that will go for Wizer's wine and gourmet store. That will likely leave about 20,000 feet for rent. with say two restaurants, there will not be a lot for rent.
1. Agreed. Though one would think that young people who are looking for a more family-oriented environment would be looking for a house, not a luxury apartment. And people who could afford the high end rents would be most likely to be able to buy homes.
Delete2. Can't argue with you there. It it's a lifestyle choice for sure.
3. All apartments age, and all things being equal, location has more to do with price than anything else.
4. I agree about Bridgeport, but it it is hard to say what downtown LO will be like 10 years from now.
5. Retail success is proportional to the population base it draws from. Downtown LO is not positioned to bring in shoppers from other areas, so I don't know what businesses will do well there. I'm sure that business people do their homework on this before renting. My complaint is that the city should not be in the position of requiring mixed use as government is not very good at making a profit and has no skin in the game.
Regarding a couple of items:
Delete4. My hope is that after the Wizer decision passes (and I'm betting it passes at a 65% confidence level) people will raise hell to have the development code changed to more reflect what is wanted and therefore L.O. will not become dense. (I'd also like to see L.O. withdraw from TriMet and Metro.)
5. Retail does usually require population but with specialty retail traffic becomes much more important. Specialty retail can easily fail in even densely populated areas where traffic patterns (both foot and auto) work against it. Downtown has the traffic and is a natural draw and has, in my opinion decent shopper visitation, so that the right type of specialty retail will certainly work there. It certainly is in Lake View Village.