Willful Ignorance.
| —Aldous Huxley |
"Central Planners plan. Human behavior has no standing in their beliefs."
-- USC
Government runs on policy and popular opinion - emotion - not logic, fact, and unpopular acts. So when it comes to making financial decisions and policy dealing with businesses, the results are often negative, and sometimes disasterous. Disastrous to businesses, yes, but also counterproductive to the goals they want to achieve and people they want to help.
The City of Portland Bureau of Planning and Sustainability commissioned the PSU Toulon School of Department of Urban Studies and Planning to do a study of housing options in the Southwest Corridor - especially SW Portland and Tigard. This is in advance of the new light rail that is to be built from a Portland to Tualatin.
Understanding (intending) that communities that are in the path of light rail will (should) experience increased density and (new, expensive) multifamily housing (and gentrification), government agencies responsible for transportation planning and land use are now realizing their plans have an ugly downside. Perverse consequences follow wherever Central Planning goes.
Transportation funds have flowed toward light rail and streetcars for years, butchering what was once a good bus system, deconstructing area roadways, and intentionally causing congestion on major roads. But build they must, despite a noticible decline in transit ridership overall. Why do they build? To encourage development. Why is housing expensive? One reason, new rail construction increases demand for land at transit stations, and area gentrification follows.
Is all the effort worth it? Especially when affordability and stable neighborhoods are at stake? Idealogues are running the system. Government types spew propaganda without understanding the complicated, interwoven dynamics of the economy that go with their decisions. They are playing a complex game of chess with only one move - put government in control!
The Antiplanner, 9-29-2017 By Randall O'Tools, CATO Fellow
Portland’s Transit Experiment Has Failed
It is interesting to note that two of the region’s policies for boosting transit — densification (which makes housing expensive) and congestification (which makes buses late) — are now suspected of hurting transit. Of course, no one at TriMet would ever suggest that these policies be reconsidered.A new light-rail line will in fact be counterproductive. Increasing property taxes will make housing even more expensive. Increased congestion from trains running in and crossing streets will delay buses even more. Rail’s high operating costs will probably mean higher bus fares. But this is typical of Portland’s light-rail mafia, which cares more about inputs than results.
Portland is so blinded by the urban planning vision of what a transit mecca should look like that it fails to see that cities no longer fit that vision.
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Real Estate and Business Department instead? Not enough ideology?). "Preserving the stock of NOAH housing" and "preserving rents" is a pipe dream. Rents are stabilizing now and in the future may go up or down, but unless government wants to buy or assist non-profits to buy existing, older multifamily housing, they don't have control over sales, pricing, renovations, "upscaling" and rents. When rents are "stabilized" for older buildings that need constant maintenance work, insufficient funds can further degrade the property. It doesn't take very long for affordable housing to look shabby - after all, it's nobody's baby.
It makes just as much sense to control the price of single family houses in order to preserve their affordability. Perhaps government should prohibit remodeling, upgrades, flipping houses and apartments, renting a dwelling space for more than it costs to own and operate it, and generally making any money from a physical asset. That kind of control of personal property is called socialism.
The irony of all of this hand wringing is that government deliberately causes gentrification, then wants to solve the problems of the people they hurt along the way. Once people get below-market rents, they will be trapped in that place making rents for new residents much more expensive. More government help to come? They can't help themselves and are unwilling to learn.
"Social scientists don't do math - supply and demand concepts are not understood."
--- Government Council on Economic DevelopmentPreserving Housing Choice and Opportunity
A STUDY OF APARTMENT BUILDING SALES AND RENTS
Prepared for the Southwest Corridor Equity and Housing Advisory Group
Conclusion:
The great majority of the Portland region’s low and moderate income renters do not receive government subsidies
or live in regulated affordable housing. They live in Naturally Occurring Affordable Housing — here defined as
apartments with lower quality ratings that are usually older and with fewer amenities.
As the population grows, and higher income renters move to the area, preserving the stock of NOAH housing is important for the stability of these low income renting households. As new transit lines are planned, loss of NOAH also means a reduced ability to access opportunities in neighborhoods near transit.
This report focuses on the inventory and market for NOAH type multifamily buildings.
While the region still has a substantial amount of two and three star buildings compared to newer, luxury type apartments, these lower cost units are under pressure. Rents are rising; and sales of buildings have been rising since the recession. With increasing demand to live in the area, the market moves towards investing in and upscaling these NOAH buildings, which could lead to the displacement of thousands of residents.
As the population grows, and higher income renters move to the area, preserving the stock of NOAH housing is important for the stability of these low income renting households. As new transit lines are planned, loss of NOAH also means a reduced ability to access opportunities in neighborhoods near transit.
This report focuses on the inventory and market for NOAH type multifamily buildings.
While the region still has a substantial amount of two and three star buildings compared to newer, luxury type apartments, these lower cost units are under pressure. Rents are rising; and sales of buildings have been rising since the recession. With increasing demand to live in the area, the market moves towards investing in and upscaling these NOAH buildings, which could lead to the displacement of thousands of residents.
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